Aftershock Australia

After GFC, American and Australian 'experts' were wrong to suggest selling property in Australia and buy gold/silver.

It is economic activity that shows the way, not just prices.
Government stimulus stays on for too long, and drives the next boom.
underlying fundamentals
  1. entered COVID with 'low' debt levels
  2. consumer confidence is resilient
  3. Pent up Demand (because over zealous APRA 2017-19)

  4. Lack of construction/supply
  5. population growth will again be a contributing factor in our growth (Hong Kong money flows have a high correlation with sydney house prices)

  6. infrastructure
  7. cheap money
  8. money printing - house price correlates with money printing (quantitative easing)

  9. Australia is property centric, unlike US which is shares. (We think of land because UK toffs had land) Residential realestate is bigger than super+listed stocks+commercial real estate

  10. changing demographics - move to smaller houses. There will be more renters.

  11. historical precedents
  12. Property cycle attendee-bonuses/
Think and Grow Rich by Napolean Hill, and he later book, "Outwitting the Devil"
Aftershock Australia Book by Dymphna Boholt

historical precedents

Housing prices have been essentially unaffected by big events, spanish flu, 1987 black monday stock market crash,
Money printing increases hard asset prices (usually property)

Property cycle

Residential moves before commercial
industrial is probably the best commercial to recover after covid
retail will be weak
office ? will everyone work from home from now?

18 year property cycle.
next peak 2026?
next bottom 2028-2030
So need to sell out 2026...

10 Steps

  1. get educated
  2. get market ready (finance)
  3. get mentally fit
  4. get a team
  5. get in a community of achievers
  6. get clear on your WHY
  7. get clear on what you want
  8. get a strategic plan
  9. allocate time for growth
  10. follow the (plan?)